Agrarian based Socioeconomic Impacts
of Climate Change and Variability
The impacts of climate change and variability on the agrarian based socioeconomic structure of the Northern Great Plains is especially disconcerting due to suggestions that climate change and variability will have a greater affect on agriculture regions of the world. Extremes in weather have created a agrarian society that is generally aware of and adaptive to these extremes but climate change and variability is not the same as weather extremes. If current climate change models are remotely correct in predicting pole ward movement of agricultural zones, increased temperatures, and decreases in available crop moisture we can expect extensive reworking of the agrarian based socioeconomic structure of our region. What role climate change and variability will have on the Northern Great Plains socioeconomic structure is extremely difficult to model given the lack of consensus on the degree that climate change and variability will have on the general land use of this region.
The underlying principle is uncertainty to the degree and distribution of climate change and variability thus the degree and change to agrarian socioeconomic structure. One thing is certain we will experience short term climate change and variability and this will continue to affect, in subtle ways, the traditional agrarian socioeconomic system we are use to. The need to adapt to natural climatic change and variability is a reality, the ability to adapt to accelerated climatic change and variability due to anthropogenic causes is disconcerting when you consider the lack of precise scientific information . Development of predictive models based on sound scientific data provides the first step in dealing with climatic change and variability, irrespective of its source, natural or man made.
The Northern Great Plains is an area that experiences continental climatic conditions. The very nature of continental climatic conditions suggests patterns of constant and sometimes extreme changes in weather. Long considered the "bread basket" of world due to the predominance of agricultural industry, it is intuitive that changes in climate and greater than normal extremes in variability would affect the socioeconomic structure of this region.
Impact on natural resources
Land
Perhaps the greatest impact will be on the land used for cultivation and grazing. The land is the very core of agrarian socioeconomic systems, remove or degrade land for agrarian use and you alter the entire system. Weather and Climate plays an extremely important role in the land use decisions that farmers and ranchers make on daily and year to year basis. Weather tends to affect the shorter temporal scale while climate tends to be inclusive or restrictive, long term, on how land is utilized. References to the adaptability of farmers abound, the standard catch all phrase "there’s always next year" seems to sum up the this trait. Current models indicate the possibility of greater swings in extreme weather and shifting of agricultural zones, if these models prove true the ability of the modern farmer to adapt to these changes will greatly enhanced if advanced warnings of possible change can be developed.
Land use relating to climate change and variability is not restricted to pure agricultural use, changes in the landscape will affect recreation activities of the agrarian society. Habitat changes may affect the hunting and fishing activities enjoyed by the people of this region.
Water
One of the most precious resources in the world is clean, safe, and accessible water. While global climate model suggest that melting of polar ice caps will result in sea level increases, this does not translate into greater quantities of high quality water for the Northern Great Plains.
We will still be reliant on ground water and surface water for agricultural and human consumption. Climate models suggest that semi-arid regions may experience warmer and dryer conditions making sustainable agriculture in theses regions more difficult. This climate change would necessitate a change in normal agricultural practices from dry land farming to irrigation. Increased irrigation would place additional stress on the groundwater resources of the region. Despite the wet conditions experienced in North Dakota this spring, particularly the flooding of Devils Lake and the Red River of the North, this area has experienced increased concerns of water shortages for manufacturing and food processing industry.
Will the increase in temperature predicted by current modeling mean more or less water available? Will the spatial variability of climate change and variability produce drier conditions in one area and wetter conditions in another? Where water issues are concerned, urban and rural areas of this region will impacted to a similar degree. These questions will continue to be asked until the level of modeling efforts provide the resolution and accuracy needed to support responsible and informed decisions protecting the water resources of this region.
Biodiversity
As a result of changes in land-use and alteration of the landscape, biodiversity of the region will also change. Changes in the ecosystems of the Northern Great Plains will depend heavily on the rate of climatic change and variability. Plant and animal species are constantly under going change and adaptation, but when the rate of change to the ecosystem surpasses the ability to adapt, species die off. Prediction of climate change and variability on a regional or local scale with respect to ecosystem change will provide insight into the world we will live in 100 years from now.
Impacts on Human resources
Cultural
The culture of the Northern Great Plains has it’s roots in agricultural production. The last two decades has seen extensive urbanization of a once predominantly rural population. Increases in the average farm size is directly related to the overall decrease in farms, particularly family farms. We can imagine that if results of climate change and variability in the Northern Great Plains results in greater extremes in severe weather, the ability of farmers cope with this added uncertainty will result in larger migrations from farming as a principle occupation.
Uncertainty in local or regional models to predict where and to what degree the agricultural society is affected provides fertile ground for speculation. If, as some models predict, the mid latitudes will suffer a 10 - 30% decrease in yields we could see further decreases in farmland under cultivation. This will cause a ripple affect throughout the socioeconomic structure of our farming communities.
Changes that are abrupt, dramatic, and long lasting force an immediate response in cultural fabric of our region. This is the nature of our culture when you consider the need to adapt to extreme weather as it affects agricultural production. One of the major problems associated with climate change and variability is the slow nature of change. It is much easier to ignore slow, imperceptible change over years when you are forced to deal with extreme variability in climate from year to year. This can help promote a complacent attitude toward climate change and variability, making it difficult to generate the dialog necessary to develop a long term, common sense approach to mitigating the affects of climate change and variability on the Northern Great Plains.
Migration
Adaptation to the changing environment, natural and manmade, can create unforeseen results. The Northern Great Plains greatest natural asset is the highly productive agricultural land that produces this nation’s food for internal and external markets. While it can be argued that this may not be the best possible use of the land, none will argue the necessity for a stable, low cost food supply. Highly productive land is only one ingredient for food production success, you also require a skilled, motivated, and resilient work force.
The current migration trend in the Northern Great Plains is from the rural areas to the urban centers as a consequence farms have been growing in size. Recent studies have indicated that there will be a shortage of qualified farm operators in the near future. Some of the reasons for this trend are: lack of social amenities, lack of opportunity to farm, increased risk of farm failure, high cost of entry into farming, and recent technology increases. This trend cannot be directly related to climate change and variability, but we can speculate that the agrarian socioeconomic system of the Northern Great Plains will undergo addition stress related to out migration of potential farm operators.
Political
The political structure of the region will also change in response to perceived changes brought on by climate change and variability. As urban areas gain people the balance of power will shift to urban based concerns. Increasing Competition for prime farm land at the urban fringes will result in increased stress on farm operations. In the past farmers and farm groups have enjoyed political support from state legislatures, as the balance of power shifts the political climate may change as much as the physical climate.
The proposed farm bill has been labeled the "right to farm" bill. This bill is a radical departure from previous bills in that government intervention into most aspects of farming is being removed or limited. The reliance on market forces as the major governing body of agriculture in the future has some farmers and farm groups concerned about the lack of a safety net for food production. What will be the affects of this farm bill on the future in light of climate change and variability? What is the cost, politically, not to responding to climate change and variability? These questions and many more will be the focus of much debate as the scientific community responds with more information on climate change and variability.
Impacts of climate change and variability on Economic resources
Regional Economics
Reliance on farm income relates directly to all socioeconomic factors in this region. Main street businesses feel the impact of declines and advances of farm income, this is especially true in smaller urban centers.
As the farm landscape changes so does the economic landscape, loss of farm revenue due to climate change and variability will impact the rural areas to the greatest degree. Once stable farming regions will experience loss of goods and services at the local level, creating the necessity to travel long distance for these services. Production cost will increase as distances to fertilizer, fuel, and labor increase. Increases in farm inputs is not always offset by market value of products sold, thus decreasing net farm profitability. Decreases in net farm revenue, however temporary, increases financial risk. What degree will climate change and variability contribute to an already vulnerability system is question yet to be answer.
Agricultural production has allowed the United States to enjoy a stable and affordable food supply and provided valuable resources for foreign trade. Increased pressure on agrarian based systems to compete on the world market, coupled with increased risk due to climate change and variability could be the biggest challenges the ever changing agrarian based society of the Northern Great Plains has faced. Sound scientific information on the climate, it’s change and variability over time, will provide the necessary inputs to minimize the economic impact of this region.
Summary
Climate change and variability is not a recent development, paleoclimate research suggests that the earth’s climate is dynamic and ever-changing. The goal scientific investigation into climate change and variability should be the understanding of natural and human aspects of climate change and variability. The affects of human activity should be quantified so that the response to climate change and variability is productive and proactive. By understanding the nature of climatic change and variability we can react with responsible and proactive solutions to socioeconomic problems anticipated by a better understanding of climate change and variability.
Climate change and variability will not have the same affect on the socioeconomic structure of the Northern Great plains as it will have in other regions of the world. While it is not certain to what degree of affect climate change and variability will have, we can speculate on the areas of potential affect and begin to collect the necessary data to model likely scenarios.
It is not possible, at present, to calculate a precise affects of climate change and variability on the socioeconomic structure of the Northern Great Plains, but we can begin the dialog that is necessary for the development of a common sense approach in dealing with climate change and variability as it affects the Northern Great Plains.