With today’s ever increasing technological resources these questions are best addressed through the use of sophisticated numerical models run on some of the nations most powerful computers.

Types of Climate Models

Since the development of the computer there have been many advancements made in all areas of study. With the ability of today’s computer technology to quickly calculate grueling formulas in fractions of a second, numerical modeling has become a popular sector of the scientific research community. Numerical models are used to predict things such as plant growth, economic tendencies, population trends, migration patterns, eco-systems, the weather and even climate. Some models are very sophisticated and based upon complex formulas that describe the physical processes, while others are based upon past statistics. No matter which of these models being used, it can still offer insight on the possible status of our future climate.

The most fundamental of climate models is what is commonly known as a Global Circulation Model (GCM). These types of models are typically run for large time scales and as the name implies, the results generally cover the entire globe. GCM’s are valuable, but when focusing on a particular region such as the Northern Great Plains the results are often too general. In order to cover the globe the spacing between gird points is often larger than the typical state in the U.S. It then becomes important to use a smaller spatial scale for detailed information on climate change for a specific region.

When looking at the physical processes involved in climate change and variability there are four main components that interact together: atmosphere, sea ice, ocean and land/plant. The most comprehensive climate model takes into account all four processes. The most notable model of this type is the Climate System Model (CSM) model being developed and run at the Climate Global Dynamics (CGD) division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. For some regions, such as the Northern Great Plains which is land-locked some of the components are not very relevant. For this reason there are various combinations of the four processes being used for climate modeling for different regions around the globe.

All of the above listed climate models, as well as many others yield possible climate scenarios for the future. Combining the climate model output with other types of models such as crop growth, economic growth and so forth, a greater understanding of the impacts climate change and variability have on the whole of society can be reached. With the important role of agriculture in the Northern Great Plains there is an obvious benefit to the coupling of a climate model with an agricultural model. Such a study is under development at the Regional Weather Information Center that will couple an atmospheric model, the MM5 with some modifications, to a modified agricultural/land processes model, EPIC, to be run at the regional scale.

Applications of Climate Modeling

With all the questions about climate change and variability being asked each day the applications of climate modeling is virtually endless. Of primary concern at this time is the identification of the causes of climate change and how much is anthropogenic and how changes in our habits may contribute to the climate. The most common studies are examining the climate for an atmosphere with a doubled CO2 concentration. This is to simulate the atmosphere in the future without a conscience effort to reduce CO2 emissions and there have even been a few studies that have used a quadrupled CO2 concentration. It is the goal of these experiments to better understand the role that the so-called "greenhouse gasses" play in our changing climate.

Agriculture is another arena that is greatly enhanced by the use and application of climate models. Even though no climate model has the exact answers to what the climate will be ten years from now or one hundred years from now the model output gives us some possibilities. Having possible outcomes of climate change and variability allows research to be more focused. Research can be conducted to develop other crop varieties and practices that are more favorable for the possible climate scenarios. Regions can begin to diversify their economic bases so blows to the agricultural sector do not topple an entire town financially. One thing is for certain - the climate is going to change and models can give us some clues about how it is going to change.

The information from the climate models can also be used to study the response of people to climate change instead of plants. Many domains that are susceptible to climate change play a large role in the distribution of people, for example the water resources and land resources. Economics of a region could also change drastically with a shift in the climate which would then alter the job market and livelihood the region. All these things are important to the migration of people. Thus, by using the climate model output as input into migration models, economic models and the related, a greater understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of climate change and variability can be reached.

Summary

At first examination it may appear as though climate modeling produces more questions than answers. But, the ability to pose new questions illustrates that a new level of understanding has been reached. As new developments are made in climate modeling hopefully more questions will be answered than posed. The model outputs are providing us with various climate scenarios that can then be applied to socioeconomic and agricultural models as well. The valuable knowledge obtained through the analysis of such model output will assist in rationally responding and adjusting to climate change and variability.