Since the development of the computer there have been many advancements made in all areas of study. With the ability of today’s computer technology to quickly calculate grueling formulas in fractions of a second, numerical modeling has become a popular sector of the scientific research community. Numerical models are used to predict things such as plant growth, economic tendencies, population trends, migration patterns, eco-systems, the weather and even climate. Some models are very sophisticated and based upon complex formulas that describe the physical processes, while others are based upon past statistics. No matter which of these models being used, it can still offer insight on the possible status of our future climate.

The most fundamental of climate models is what is commonly known as a Global Circulation Model (GCM). These types of models are typically run for large time scales and as the name implies, the results generally cover the entire globe. GCM’s are valuable, but when focusing on a particular region such as the Northern Great Plains the results are often too general. In order to cover the globe the spacing between gird points is often larger than the typical state in the U.S. It then becomes important to use a smaller spatial scale for detailed information on climate change for a specific region.

When looking at the physical processes involved in climate change and variability there are four main components that interact together: atmosphere, sea ice, ocean and land/plant. The most comprehensive climate model takes into account all four processes. The most notable model of this type is the Climate System Model (CSM) model being developed and run at the Climate Global Dynamics (CGD) division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. For some regions, such as the Northern Great Plains which is land-locked some of the components are not very relevant. For this reason there are various combinations of the four processes being used for climate modeling for different regions around the globe.

All of the above listed climate models, as well as many others yield possible climate scenarios for the future. Combining the climate model output with other types of models such as crop growth, economic growth and so forth, a greater understanding of the impacts climate change and variability have on the whole of society can be reached. With the important role of agriculture in the Northern Great Plains there is an obvious benefit to the coupling of a climate model with an agricultural model. Such a study is under development at the Regional Weather Information Center that will couple an atmospheric model, the MM5 with some modifications, to a modified agricultural/land processes model, EPIC, to be run at the regional scale.