Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change and Variability
The impact of climate change and variability on agriculture is of great importance to the Northern Great Plains region due to the significant role of agriculture in this region. Site some statistics with supporting graphics.
It is not enough to recognize that climate change and variability will have an impact on the Northern Great Plains. Through careful study of the potential impacts of extreme weather and possible climate change on agricultural resources, production, and economics, a more knowledgeable assessment of other consequences of climate variability and change, extending beyond the agricultural sector, can be made. The sharing of this information through education and outreach is essential in the preparedness of this region to deal with climatic change and variability
Resources
Agriculturists of this region are well aware of the impact weather has on their livelihood. This has created an agrarian society that adjusts and adapts to variable weather. Climate change and variability does, however, reach a point at which minor revisions to agricultural practices are no longer feasible whether economically or otherwise.
Most notably, if the climate changes enough there will be a change in the natural resources of the region. More specifically, there will be changes to both the land resources and water resources. How will these resources change? and, how can we adapt to these changing resources? Are questions that need to be examined.
Impact on natural resources (land)
Perhaps the greatest impact will be on the land used for cultivation and grazing. The land is the very core of agrarian socioeconomic systems, remove or degrade land for agrarian use and you alter the entire system. Weather and Climate plays an extremely important role in the land use decisions that farmers and ranchers make on daily and year to year basis. Weather tends to affect the shorter temporal scale while climate tends to be inclusive or restrictive, long term, on how land is utilized. References to the adaptability of farmers abound, the standard catch all phrase "there’s always next year" seems to sum up the this trait. Current models indicate the possibility of greater swings in extreme weather and shifting of agricultural zones, if these models prove true the ability of the modern farmer to adapt to these changes will greatly enhanced if advanced warnings of possible change can be developed.
Land use relating to climate change and variability is not restricted to pure agricultural use, changes in the landscape will affect recreation activities of the agrarian society. Habitat changes may affect the hunting and fishing activities enjoyed by the people of this region.
Impact on natural resources (water)
One of the most precious resources in the world is clean, safe, and accessible water. While global climate model suggest that melting of polar ice caps will result in sea level increases, this does not translate into greater quantities of high quality water for the Northern Great Plains.
We will still be reliant on ground water and surface water for agricultural and human consumption. Climate models suggest that semi-arid regions may experience warmer and dryer conditions making sustainable agriculture in theses regions more difficult. This climate change would necessitate a change in normal agricultural practices from dry land farming to irrigation. Increased irrigation would place additional stress on the groundwater resources of the region. Despite the wet conditions experienced in North Dakota this spring, particularly the flooding of Devils Lake and the Red River of the North, this area has experienced increased concerns of water shortages for manufacturing and food processing industry.
Will the increase in temperature predicted by current modeling mean more or less water available? Will the spatial variability of climate change and variability produce drier conditions in one area and wetter conditions in another? Where water issues are concerned, urban and rural areas of this region will impacted to a similar degree. These questions will continue to be asked until the level of modeling efforts provide the resolution and accuracy needed to support responsible and informed decisions protecting the water resources of this region.
Production
As the climate changes and varies so will the agricultural production of the Northern Great Plains States. As the land resources and water resources ebb and flow in consequence to the climate it is natural to see a change in the production as well. Change will not only occur in the production of crops. Productivity of rangeland could also dwindle. With the tightly knit weave of agriculture, a drop in crop and rangeland products will then affect the productivity of livestock. In addition, a change in the climatic temperatures and the weather extremes would also place stress on livestock, further decreasing their productivity.
In order to better understand the effects of climate change and variability on the agricultural sector it becomes necessary to examine and study the possible effects on and interrelation between the production of cropland, rangeland and livestock.
Economics
Climate change and climate variability have a type of "domino effect" that makes its way through the agricultural sector. As the agricultural resources are changed, production must incur some adjustments which then alters the economics. Due to this "trickle down" nature it is important to first understand the impacts on the land and water resources and their impact on production and finally it is possible to begin looking at the effect of economics. At this time concentration is focused on better understanding the impacts of climate variability and change on the resources and production. It can be seen, however, that the agricultural economics change in two main ways. As the resources change, policies may change that could effect the operational costs such as an increase in cost of irrigation permits, increase in gasoline prices and so forth. In addition, a decrease in agricultural resources could result in a change in production as well as facilitate changes in management practices that drastically alter production costs. Before any speculations can be made, a thorough understanding of the impacts climate change and variability have on the natural resources and production must be understood.
Summary
The effects of climate change and variability on agriculture is a chain reaction. As the climate changes, through increased occurrences of extreme weather phenomenon such as floods or droughts, the available agricultural resources shift, which in turn modifies production and thus alters the economics of the agricultural sector. The chain, however, does not stop there. The vast role of agriculture in the Northern Great Plains suggests that any significant mutations in the agricultural industry would, in addition, result in transformations of the socioeconomic structure of the region. By better understanding the interactions between the various effects of climate change and variability and exchanging of this valuable information, through education and outreach efforts, wiser decisions can be made to soften the potential jolt of a changing climate.